Renewal Forecasting in HubSpot: Build a Forecast You Can Explain
By Ulas ArslanPublished Updated
A renewal forecast should show which agreements are due, how much existing revenue they represent and what evidence supports the expected result. Start with that group of agreements, not every open deal in HubSpot. This guide gives you a simple renewal forecast template and a worked example you can use in a spreadsheet or adapt to your CRM.
Define the group before adding a probability
Choose a reporting period, such as the next calendar quarter. Include every agreement scheduled to renew in that period, even if nobody has created a renewal deal. Record the date used to decide inclusion. A sales close date and a contract end date can place the same agreement in different quarters.
Keep a fixed snapshot of this starting group. When a date changes, record the movement rather than quietly deleting the agreement. Otherwise a forecast can appear to improve simply because difficult renewals moved out of the report. Our date comparison guide explains the distinction.
Use a small renewal forecast template
Use one row per agreement. Company ID links the row to the customer, while Agreement ID prevents a quote, deal and subscription from being counted as three renewals. Pick one value basis, such as annual recurring revenue, and one reporting currency. Do not mix annual and monthly amounts.
These are proposed worksheet fields, not built-in Renewal Radar fields. You can store them in your contract system, CRM or a controlled spreadsheet.
| Field | What to record |
|---|---|
| Agreement and Company IDs | Stable keys and the source record |
| Due date and starting ARR | The renewal period and existing recurring value |
| Status and retained ARR | Confirmed, open or lost; expected retained amount |
| Evidence and checked date | What supports the status and when it was checked |
| Owner and next decision | Who will resolve the uncertainty, and by when |
A worked forecast without hidden confidence scores
Example: a quarter has EUR 120,000 of starting ARR due for renewal. Agreements worth EUR 80,000 have confirmed renewals at the same value. EUR 30,000 remains open. EUR 10,000 has a confirmed non-renewal. Assume no expansion, price changes or currency effects.
A downside scenario retains EUR 80,000. An upside scenario retains EUR 110,000 if all open agreements renew in full. An illustrative planning case retains 80% of the open amount: EUR 80,000 + EUR 24,000 = EUR 104,000. That 80% is an explicit assumption, not a measured probability or an industry benchmark.
The planning case is 86.7% of the starting renewal ARR. Show the EUR 30,000 unresolved amount beside it. This lets a reader see how much of the forecast is supported by completed commercial decisions and how much still depends on assumptions.
Keep the operational signal beside the commercial judgment
An account can need immediate follow-up and still be expected to renew. Another account can have plenty of meetings and still face a budget decision. Record the operational reason separately from the forecast category. A task, meeting or positive email does not by itself prove a signed renewal.
GitLab publishes a renewal operations process that includes forecast upkeep and reconciliation. The worksheet here is our own simpler example. Agree your categories with finance and account owners before treating them as comparable across teams.
Run a weekly review of changes
Save last week’s version before editing this week’s forecast. Explain each movement as a newly identified agreement, changed date, changed existing value, revised assumption or confirmed outcome. Keep expansion in its own column so it cannot hide a lost renewal.
- Reconcile the due-agreement count to the contract source.
- Review the largest open amounts and the oldest evidence.
- Confirm a named owner and next decision date for each unresolved row.
- Record new outcomes and explain changes from the last snapshot.
- Compare the final forecast with actual retained ARR when the period closes.
Choose the next action from the evidence
If the date is uncertain, verify the agreement first. If a commercial decision is open, ask the owner what must happen next. If the account lacks follow-up, use the renewal coverage audit to find the gap. Different problems need different actions.
Renewal Radar can help identify which Companies need renewal attention. It does not replace a contract ledger or forecast the chance of churn. Keep the revenue-at-risk explanation beside your forecast so the two numbers are not presented as the same metric.